Emotions are running full throttle right now with the players, coaches, front office, media, and especially the fans. While there are no cure-all, fail proof solutions to be offered, let’s take a quick look at what the facts, feelings, and future seem to be at this cross roads point of the season:

Facts – What we know:

1. 1. The team has lost 10 games in a row, and their 6.5 game lead over the Giants has dwindled down to 1 going into tonight’s matchup with the Dodgers.
2. 2. They are not playing very good baseball right now on any side of the ball. The hitting has been ice cold, and the pitching (other than a couple of starting efforts) and defense, which had been their strengths all season have been average at best, and game costing more than once.
3. 3. The teams trying to catch the pads, primarily the Giants and Rockies, have been playing much better baseball than the Padres recently, and have narrowed the gap not only in the standings, but with their on field play and confidence as well.

Feelings – What I am hearing from fans:

1. 1. This team has lost all its ability to play baseball. My Response: Yes, they are playing poorly right now, but I still find it hard to believe that the past 10 games represents what this team is capable of better than the 7 previous months when they had a winning record (a streak matched only by the Yankees over that time).
2. 2. The players simply need to “kick it in the rear, and start trying harder”. My Response: These guys are trying to play hard and turn this thing around – maybe too hard in some cases. Having lived through some streaks like this during my 20 year career, you may be surprised at the extra pressure that some guys put on themselves to be “The Man” to turn things around for the club. Often times this well intentioned added pressure creates worse play, rather than better.
3. 3. Buddy Black has been too relaxed and should be showing more emotion on the field and in the clubhouse. My Response: In general, my experience is that field generals that command out of unchecked, outwardly angry emotion can lose their players. Emotions are contagious, and if misconstrued players can see their manager reacting with anger and frustration and begin to feel as though he has lost confidence in their ability to play.
4. We don’t know what is going on inside the clubhouse (which we shouldn’t!), but one thing that Buddy has always done well is keep the confidence and focus of his troops, as was displayed last year when they finished so strong after a weak start. Maybe Buddy has had or will have a rear-end chewing with his club, but it must be genuine and focused otherwise it simply becomes a demeaning tirade that can distance players and lose their faith in his leadership and themselves.
5. 4. Buddy hasn’t been trying enough lineup changes. My Repsonse: Simply not true if you look at it. Take a look at the different combinations and you will see that almost every player has been used in the starting multiple times (short of Stairs and Hairston), and there have been multiple experiments in the leadoff spot, and now recently Gonzo, Tejada, and Ludwick have all been moved around the lineup as well. It might not be the exact combination that you would try so far, but from my observation the search for winning combo has been being made.
6. 5. The season has already been lost, and there is no turning the ship around. My Response: If they continue to play the way they have in the past week then yes, any chance of seeing the post-season is gone. They must turn it around immediately and convincingly, and I believe they can since pitching has been their strength and they have not lost any to injury, and may be adding some with Cory Luebke and anything Chris Young can contribute.

Faith – What are some positives that exist:

1. 1. Despite one of the worst loosing streak in MLB this season the team is still in first place. Granted, if they don’t start playing better starting tonight they may not be in sole possession by tomorrow, but today they are in first place despite the current debacle.
2. 2. They still have a schedule that can favor them with matchups against the Giants (7) and Rockies (3), as well as 4 with the lowly Cubs, so as of today they are still in control their own destiny.
3. 3. Jerry Hairston, Jr., who has been sorely missed, should be able to return and help the team before September is over, as well as Chris Young who may be able to add some helpful innings.

Future – What can be done:

1. In my opinion the strength of this team all season has been the pitching and defense, and that is what I believe will get them out of this slump, and needs to be their foundation through the end. All attempts to spark the offense and find a combination of hot bats recently has failed. Maybe it’s time to simply go for the best defensive team they can field to support the pitching staff. Try to win the game 1-0, or 2-1. Keep as many runs off the board as you can, and fight, scratch, bunt, and steal whatever few runs you can manufacture because any attempts to slug right now are not working.
2. From a player’s perspective, as hard as it is, they have to come to the park knowing two things.  First , that they expect to win today, and there is no other possible outcome.  If you enter a game hoping to win, or wanting to win, you are opening the door to being beat – you have to KNOW it, and expose your self to the emotional commitment.  Second, that the focus will be on the immediate task, whether it be that pitch being thrown, that pitch of an at-bat, that play, that base running attempt, etc., and nothing else.  If you are thinking about “breaking this slump”, “we have to win this game” then you are not 100% focused at that moment on what you need to do to achieve that outcome.  It is a fine line of concentration, but in my experience an important one.

As I said earlier I don’t know of any tried and true remedies for these types streaks. If I did, I would have already put it forth. Downturns like this usually do one of two things to a team once they’ve ended. They can either emotionally, physically, and spiritually tear a team down beyond short-term recovery, or they can build confidence and unity through having survived it. Only time will tell which will hold true for these Padres, but based on the grit and moxy they’ve shown most of the year, there is evidence that they can come out of this and once again be the team that has led the NL West most of the season – whether they do or not is up to them.

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Scan 2-Minute Tip: Padres’ reliever Luke Gregerson demonstrates how he throws his signature nasty slider. (Producer: Lorien Markuszka; Camera/Editor: Jay Conner)

Scan 2-Minute Tip: Padres’ outfielder Tony Gwynn, Jr. demonstrates how to get a lead off first base, and get a good jump to steal second. (Producer: Lorien Markuszka; Cameraman/Editor: Jay Conner)

Topics covered: What happens when a batter/runner can’t make it around the bases after hitting a home run?; Do September call ups get full major league service time?; correct direction of American Flag on right sleeve of uniforms; Chris Young update.

Topics covered: Padres pitchers not getting complete games; players offended by going through waivers after trade deadline; ruling on a catcher tripping over dropped bat at home plate; Postgame Player Of The Game voting; Miguel Tejada “Spotlight” sign; Clayton Richard’s fast work tempo; why many relievers pitch out of the stretch with no runners on base; Yorvit Torrealba double pumps his throws back to pitcher; which side of the field the home team dugout is on.

These terms such as “Gritty, little Padres”, “Baby Padres”, etc. while intending to be endearing, to me only perpetuate the perception of being a second tier organization not to be taken seriously.

Time to come up with something new that tells the world that Padres players and their fans don’t view themselves as prepubescents that get patted on the head by the rest of the league, before being told to “Go way kid, you’re bothering me.”

Come on, Padre faithful, time to come up with nicknames that portend the brand of baseball you expect from now on out of your team – hard nosed, unrelenting, and unified in purpose to win a championship.

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With that in mind, it’s no surprise that every night recently I receive dozens of viewers’ emails asking essentially the same thing: “ Are the Padres going to make a move?  If so, will they get a bat, or an arm,?  Who will it be?”  All kinds of names are being thrown around, but there are a few things that need to be kept in mind.

1. It takes two to Tango: There seems to be a sense sometimes amongst fans that if the Padres want a player that all Jed Hoyer has to do is call up the other team, offer some players, and get his man.   Just because a player may appear to be a “perfect fit” for the Padres, the other team needs to be willing to move that player, and be interested in what the Padres have to offer.  If you don’t hear about the Padres acquiring the player that appears perfect, it doesn’t mean that the Pads didn’t try – there simply may not be a deal available.

2. It often takes a deep talent pool, and an ability to take on payroll to make significant moves. The Padres are challenged with both.

3. No matter what you get, you could still use more. The question every team asks is “What piece will get us over the hump?”  Most often it isn’t a one-piece solution to most teams playoff hopes, and even if that perceived need is acquired, the question usually doesn’t go away.  Once you get that piece, and then lose one game, the question arises again.

4. Does the team need to make a move to GET to the playoffs, or to SUCCEED in the playoffs? Sounds redundant, but there is a difference and that can help determine how you spend your limited bullets.  If you need to get to the post season maybe your team needs a 4^th and 5^th starter, and a back up infielder to fill the gap for your aging shortstop down the stretch.  If you feel comfortable you can get to the post season then maybe you spend all you have on a middle of the lineup hitter with post-season experience, or veteran starter who will stay calm in playoffs.

5. Team chemistry has been a huge asset to this team, and disrupting it needs to be looked at carefully. I believe chemistry is often over rated, but I don’t think there is any doubt that it has been a factor in this team’s success.  Pads should be careful to bring in a player who will blend in with this clubhouse as well as contribute between the lines.

6. In general, I believe how a hitter that is traded for will respond to his new team is less predictable than an acquired pitcher’s contribution. When hitters go from one lineup to another there are several factors that can affect his future performance, such as change of leagues and knowledge of pitchers, and change in how he is pitched to because of a change in his position in the batting order and the players hitting around him.  The success he experienced in one lineup can change when put into another.  Pitching on the other hand is more predictable because good stuff usually translates no matter what the league, or where in the rotation he is working.

So what do the Padres need? In my opinion they need a right handed bat, an arm, and a utility infielder who can preferably hit left-handed.  They need to get to the playoffs first, and should try to spread their limited resources over several players, not just one who could potentially make a post-season difference.

UTILITY INFLIELDER: This would be my first acquisition because it would be relatively inexpensive in talent and dollars, and would make an immediate, and fairly predictable impact. With Eckstien fighting calf problems, and Cabrera playing inconsistently, a lot of pressure has been put on Jerry Hairston, Jr.  He has done a nice job playing more than expected, but that in turn has weakened the bench and infield options for Bud Black, especially defensively when Salazar needs to play second.

The ideal player would have been Geoff Blum – veteran switch hitter to give good left handed at bats off the bench, and can play every position on the infield, but he is currently battling elbow problems.  Switch hitting Alberto Collaspo was interesting until the Angels grabbed him, but Mike Fontenot, and Ryan Theriot are possible options with the soon to be selling Cubs. Ty Wigginton is also still out there, as well as Willie Bloomquist, who could also fill that role at a reasonable price.

BAT: While the Padre offense has certainly not been explosive most of the year, in most cases it has provided just enough.   They rank 11^th in runs scored, and 14^th in batting average as of the date of this posting.  Everyone talks about getting a big bat to “Protect” Adrian Gonzalez.  In my opinion, it’s not out there.  There are only a handful of players who would cause a pitcher to challenge Gonzo by hitting behind him, but Pujols and A-rod are just not available.

From a pitcher’s perspective there is almost no one who is available via trade right now that would cause me to pitch to Adrian instead of the guy hitting behind him.  Yes it would be beneficial to have some one behind him who could drive in runs so that when Adrian is pitched around, there is till a chance for some damage to be done.  However, again speaking as a former pitcher, I can pitch around your #4 hitter just as easily as I ducked your #3 hitter if there is no danger behind him.

I think it might be more beneficial to acquire a top of the order guy who can set the table for Adrian, and benefit from Gonzo’s protection of him.  Some candidates include Corey Hart, Jorge Cantu, Cody Ross, Jose Bautista, Miguel Tejada, Adam Dunn, and Jason Worth.  If the Pads wanted to make a splash they could try to get Werth but it would probably cost Heath Bell, and expose themselves to arbitration next year that they won’t want to pay.  Bautista could be the right handed power hitter that the organization has been lacking since Petco opened, but his exposure to arbitration next year, and the Jays high asking price may be too much as well.

Whether they go after a bat to hit in front of Gonzo or behind him, the Pads are going to need players who are already in the lineup to step up and make stronger contributions, otherwise adding a single bat may be like spitting into the wind.

ARM: The pitching has been the Padres strength all season, but it is showing some cracks.  Correia has been inconsistent at best since his return from the bereavement list, and Clayton Richard has had a string of average to marginal outings. The fatigue of a long season where every pitch held the game’s outcome in the balance may be taking its toll.  Combine that with the need to keep team Ace Matt Latos’ innings under control, and an arm may be what the Pads need to get to the playoffs as well as do anything once there if Latos is limited in his availability.

The moves of Lee and Haren were really inconsequential to the Pads who were never seriously in the running for those top arms.  Nor will they, or should they, give up what Houston wants for Roy Oswalt.  Ben Sheets is hurt, and the Yankees or Mets will probably overpay for Ted Lilly.  Jake Westbrook, Jeremy Guthrie, Shaun Marcum, Brian Bannister, Edwin Jackson, and Brett Myers are names that Pads may look at for their affordability.  Cleveland would have to pick up a bit of Westbrook’s contract.  Marcum may be costly as Toronto will want a lot in return for young arm, and Myers is a personality concern.  Pitching has been the strength and needs to remain so for this team to do anything down the stretch.  A little help for this staff that has carried the load may be essential.

SUMMARY: All said and done, I would look for the Pads to make several smaller moves rather than one big bang.  What will be interesting to watch in the these final days before the deadline is what moves if any do the Pads feel the need to consummate before the deadline, as opposed to waiting until after hoping to get a better deal but risking not having desired player reach them through the waiver wire.

This is a great opportunity for the Padres organization to show their fan base, their current players, and future players considering coming to the Padres that they are committed to bringing competitive playoff baseball to America’s Finest City.  The resources may not be there right now to make explosive moves, but they can certainly strengthen their team which is already in first place of the division, improve their chances of reaching the post season, increase their chance of being a factor in post season play, and most importantly start a new trend of adding instead of subtracting or treading water at the trade deadline.

Good luck to Jed Hoyer.  I’m really looking forward to seeing what he can pull off in his first trade period at the helm.

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But really, MLB, not one Padres’ pitcher was deserving of being voted to this year’s “All-Star” game by his peers, and opposing coaching staffs? Not one? Not a single member from the staff with the best ERA in MLB was good enough to be selected by NL manager Charlie Manuel?  Really? Not one?

Heath Bell at the time of the voting led all of MLB with 23 saves, reflecting the second best saves conversion ratio in the N.L., not to mention the 2^nd best ERA among N.L. closers at 1.72.  Sorry, Heath, you can’t help this year’s team of “All-Stars”.

Matt Latos is 9-4, with a 2.42 ERA, has the 4^th best winning percentage, lowest WHIP, lowest batting average against, and lowest OBP against amongst starters in the entire NL.  Sorry, Matt, not good enough.

Luke Gregerson was of course a long shot as a set up man.  But with 19 holds, second only to teammate Mike Adams, a WHIP second to none amongst his N.L. relief peers, 3^rd best strikeout to walk ration in the N.L. and the second lowest batting average against amongst N.L. relievers, one would think maybe he would get a look…uh, maybe not.

In general I’m not one to bang the drum that the national media overlooks the Padres.  National respect is nice, but it doesn’t win you games.  It has concerned me more that many Padres fans have been reluctant to cheer for this year’s winning team, rather than national talking heads giving these Pads their deserved due.  Fine with me if the Pads keep flying below the national radar and lull their victims to sleep.

It does get a little bothersome when great individual performances are overlooked.  Not because I view personal awards as being more important than team accomplishments.  I just believe that by not recognizing the proper recipient it undermines the integrity of the award.

What I find really asinine, though, is the “All-Star” game (yes in quotes because we know it’s not a collection of the best), it’s manipulated purpose, and how it is put together.  I don’t agree with it, but the commissioner thinks the All-Star game should determine the home field advantage.  If that is the case then shouldn’t the team’s representing their prospective leagues be comprised of the best players?

So as a Padres fan, what’s the good news about the sickening “All-Star” oversight that has taken place?  Your team will continue to be able to sneak into town, exact it’s toll on the opponent, and quietly move on before anyone even notices that they are taking the division.  Additionally they will now have at least 3 players who will get a little extra rest to finish the second half strong.

The best revenge for these players is to keep winning, and proving the naysayers wrong.   They’ve played like a team all season, and although some additional “All-Star” recognition would have been nice, these guys know that the real reward is winning games.  Hopefully they win more than anyone else, and then maybe someone will take notice.

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I spoke with Chris over the weekend, and the word is he is trying to get himself back on the mound as soon as possible.  After his unexpected setback from his shoulder surgery, he has gone through a variety of steps to try to get his shoulder strength back.  He’s rested it, exercised it, medicated it, and started the early process of a throwing program, all in an effort to get himself back to being competition ready before the end of the season.

The challenge, of course, has been trying to do as much as possible as quickly as possible, without doing too much too fast thus causing at a minimum another setback which could eliminate any chance of his helping the team further, and at worst another trip under the knife.

He has been on an easy throwing program, and the hopes are that he will respond positively, thus allowing him to increase the program to the point where he can get on a mound.  Once he reaches that point a timetable can tentatively be constructed that might allow for him to be MLB ready before it becomes too late for him to be a factor in the Pads division run.

Chris seems hopeful that things will go well, and that he will be able to contribute before the year’s end, but there is still a good dose of uncertainty as to whether his arm will respond quickly enough for that to happen.  For now all Chris and Padres fans can do is continue the prescribed program, say a prayer, and keep their fingers crossed, because a positive contribution from him down the stretch could potentially be a huge difference maker for this team of surprises.

Get well, CY!

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He was scheduled to miss 15 Padre telecasts, which are being done in great form in his absence by Mark Neely, and will return to the Padres booth on July 9^th for that night’s game against Colorado.

We hope he has had a wonderful time in London, and look forward to his return to calling the action for your FIRST PLACE PADRES!

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