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Would You Sign Cliff Lee for 7 Years?

Baseball 10 Dec 2010
334 Comments

Am I the only one watching this Cliff Lee sweepstakes between the Yankees, Rangers, and maybe another team lurking in the weeds, the whole time thinking…really?  

I don’t begrudge Cliff Lee in any way, and more power to him for the deal he is about to land.  I get that he has been a good pitcher in recent years…yes good.  26-22 with a 3.21 ERA the past two seasons; 45- 41 in 4 of the past 5 seasons if you take out his one super star 22-3 season in 2008 – nice numbers.  No question he is an asset in the post season as well.  Good enough to warrant a 7-year commitment for $160+M?

Personally I think it is a HUGE risk for any team to give that length of contract to any pitcher, but especially a guy who is 32 years old, has had some back issues recently, and does not have a large margin for error or room for drop off in his stuff to become very average.

Funny how fear and greed can take control of people, even heads of MLB front offices.  Was nothing learned from the Barry Zito contract that has been disastrous for SF from the moment it was inked?  Have the back end returns on the Kevin Brown and Mike Hampton contracts already been forgotten?  Since 1990 there have been about 52 contracts issued to pitchers of 4 years or longer, and the returns on those deal are less than overwhelming to say the least.  In almost 60% of those deals over the length of the contract the pitcher did not average 20 starts per season, nor post an ERA equal to the league average.

Of course there are exceptions with some guys like Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, and hand full of others, but  those examples are few and far between.  There are a handful of guys who may be worth the risk, especially for the short term contribution they may provide, but most are just rolls of the dice with either the greedy or desperate hope that somehow if you place a bigger bet it mysteriously improve your odds of beating the house.  On these bets being placed for the long term services of Lee, I like the house’s odds.   Good luck to whoever “wins” this battle of bravado.

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